Here's your #Georgia Election Data update for 10/25:
The lede of the day is that Independent and Infrequent voters are making their voices heard in Georgia.
IVWPB* share yesterday was 26%, the lowest since Early Vote started.
share has been decreasing since 10/21, now at 35%. The non-partisan + voters without partisan preferences is now 37%, the highest total share of voters.
We're likely at 50% of the total vote count. My back-of-the-envelope estimate shows
with a ~50k vote deficit. Has the
early vote surge started to abate? If that's the case, that deficit could diminish.
I'm also laser-focused on turnout from the #Democratic core counties in #Georgia (in order of priority): #Dekalb, #Fulton, #Cobb, #Gwinnett, #Rockdale, #Clarke (home county of #UGA), and #Richmond. Dekalb and Fulton need to start breaking through 10% daily shares of EV to reduce the
vote deficit.
Our daily charts will now be reporting TOTAL returns, including mail-in ballots. Looking at the daily chart, when we factor in totals, we're starting to see a reversion to the mean (averages) of typical early voting returns.
Finally, this weekend is the final #EarlyVoting weekend in GA, with weekend voting historically weighted towards
turnout.
No new polls to report!
*Infrequent voters without partisan [primary] ballots