#DeKalb County, #Georgia Election Day Update

Turnout at 4:10pm is 55,144. There was an clerical (data source) error on a single precinct's turnout earlier; this count should (hypothetically) be more accurate.

Assuming that there is the typical evening rush, the final tally of votes should be somewhere between 70k and 80k. At the low end of that estimate, that would put us at about 8k lower than 2020's total vote count.

So, this isn't the best news for Dems if the margins are super tight. Dekalb County is part of #Georgia's "blue wall," so any votes not coming from Dekalb will need to be made up somewhere, if Democrats are to remain competitive in this election.

Here's your #Georgia Election Data update for 10/25:

The lede of the day is that Independent and Infrequent voters are making their voices heard in Georgia. IVWPB* share yesterday was 26%, the lowest since Early Vote started. share has been decreasing since 10/21, now at 35%. The non-partisan + voters without partisan preferences is now 37%, the highest total share of voters.

We're likely at 50% of the total vote count. My back-of-the-envelope estimate shows with a ~50k vote deficit. Has the early vote surge started to abate? If that's the case, that deficit could diminish.

I'm also laser-focused on turnout from the #Democratic core counties in #Georgia (in order of priority): #Dekalb, #Fulton, #Cobb, #Gwinnett, #Rockdale, #Clarke (home county of #UGA), and #Richmond. Dekalb and Fulton need to start breaking through 10% daily shares of EV to reduce the vote deficit.

Our daily charts will now be reporting TOTAL returns, including mail-in ballots. Looking at the daily chart, when we factor in totals, we're starting to see a reversion to the mean (averages) of typical early voting returns.

Finally, this weekend is the final #EarlyVoting weekend in GA, with weekend voting historically weighted towards turnout.

No new polls to report!

*Infrequent voters without partisan [primary] ballots

We may be smelling the chlorine smoke from the Conyers chemical plant fire again tomorrow (Thursday), according to DeKalb county government.
https://decaturish.com/2024/10/georgia-officials-atlanta-will-be-hazy-and-smell-like-chlorine-on-thursday/
#Atlanta #DeKalb #Georgia